Monday, February 8, 2016

Tuesday's Snows and a Primary Turn-Out Prediction

Tuesday's weather will benefit Bernie Sanders and the younger voters in New Hampshire's primary, as the storm is concentrated all through that state, less so, neighboring Vermont and Massachusetts. New Hampshire is due to have snowfall concentrated in the overnight hours.

The snow's benefit to one candidate is expected, as inclement weather is expected to impair travel for older voters than it is for younger voters. Senator Bernie Sanders tends to benefit from younger voters, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tends to benefit from older voters.

The question is, whom do older and younger voters prefer in the Republican field?

Web sites have commented on how weather affects general election turnout. For example, see this piece from the Constitution Center, "Bad weather has track record of swinging some elections." But it is hard to find sites giving general analyses of weather effect patterns upon primary elections. We could expect that inclement weather lowers turnout in primary, as well as in general elections.
Snow or heavy rain probably makes Get Out the Vote harder in primaries, such as tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire.

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