Monday, February 8, 2016

Tuesday's Snows and a Primary Turn-Out Prediction

Tuesday's weather will benefit Bernie Sanders and the younger voters in New Hampshire's primary, as the storm is concentrated all through that state, less so, neighboring Vermont and Massachusetts. New Hampshire is due to have snowfall concentrated in the overnight hours.

The snow's benefit to one candidate is expected, as inclement weather is expected to impair travel for older voters than it is for younger voters. Senator Bernie Sanders tends to benefit from younger voters, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tends to benefit from older voters.

The question is, whom do older and younger voters prefer in the Republican field?

Web sites have commented on how weather affects general election turnout. For example, see this piece from the Constitution Center, "Bad weather has track record of swinging some elections." But it is hard to find sites giving general analyses of weather effect patterns upon primary elections. We could expect that inclement weather lowers turnout in primary, as well as in general elections.
Snow or heavy rain probably makes Get Out the Vote harder in primaries, such as tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire.

Monday, February 1, 2016

Iowa Caucus' Big News: Christie is FINISHED

Bizarrely, the media has some sort of obsession for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. He makes it into nearly every newscast. Yet, he's always been stuck in a third tier status.
Tonight in the Iowa Republican Caucus we have the terrific news that Chris Christie is in second to last place, at 2%, just topping psycho Rick Santorum.
So, the New York-based national media will have to give a whole lot less attention to Christie and even more attention to Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, senators from southern states.
Aside from the news of Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson lead position of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th place,  the moderates, the voices of reason and maturity, Jeb Bush and John Kasich, failed to break 10%.
No moderate GOP candidate will likely, pull ahead, unless some huge turn around happens in the New Hampshire.

10:26 pm: CNN predicts that Texas Senator Ted Cruz has won the Iowa caucus.