Don't Write Off Gingrich, Santorum Delegate Effect After April 10

Yes, Rick Santorum has given up his 2012 presidential nomination bid.

But do you really think that his delegates are going to shift entirely over to Mitt Romney's camp?
At this point most of the Santorum delegates are going to go to Newt Gingrich.

With all the mainstream media pronouncing clear sailing for Romney, with the suspension of the Santorum campaign, you would wonder, have they looked at the primary and convention schedule for the next few weeks?

HOW THE HEADLINES WILL LOOK, APPROACHING APRIL 24, NEXT BIG PRIMARY DAY
The headlines over the next few weeks are going to most likely tell the story of Santorum delegates staying in the anti-Romney camp. The anti-Romney voters probably have not forgotten Romney's aide Eric Fehrnstrom's March 21 comment about Etch-a-Sketch of Romney's positions in September and October.
In the next few weeks we have various district, county and state level conventions. These are important meetings. As GreenPapers, one of the better sites on the primary elections tell us, these are dates at which convention attendees will vote on whom delegates will be, heading toward the August 27 Tampa convention.
So, on these dates, anticipate the affirmation of the anti-Romney position, and a shift of support, and endorsement of sorts, from Santorum to Gingrich:
April 13, Colorado district conventions, April 14, Colorado state convention and April 21, Minnesota's district convention.
Wyoming's convention, April 14, could go a number of ways. Out of the March 10 county delegate selection announcement, Romney won 10 delegates, Santorum 8, Ron Paul 6 and Newt Gingrich 2. If the Santorum delegates all go to Gingrich, then Gingrich would be tied with Romney.

Friendly primaries and delegate assignment meetings in the next few weeks also would more likely go Gingrich's way than Romney's:
Kansas (4/24), Louisiana (4/28), Minnesota (5/5), Indiana (5/8), West Virginia (5/8), Nebraska (5/15), Arkansas (5/22), Kentucky (5/22), Texas (5/29). And much of New York and Pennsylvania consists of red counties, so watch for Gingrich to pick up many delegates in those states on April 22.

So, the Newt Gingrich juggernaut will certainly not die out during April or May.

It's a GOP Race of Two and a Half Candidates

Shouldn't it be obvious by now? This is a race of two and a half candidates. Much as former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum would like it to be a two-candidate competition for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, it is not. And while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich believes that it is a three person race, it is not that either.

Scroll down - Santorum threat to Romney ahead with Etch-a-Sketch gaffe & Romney flip-lops -See flip-flop video links

Gingrich --besides the Alabama and Mississippi races, has been stuck in the seven to 15 percentage zone. His returns in all the other recent primaries bear that out:
14.4 percent in Kansas
10.9 percent in Hawaii
8.0 percent in Illinois
(Remember that Gingrich did not even have the organization for getting into the Missouri contest; and Puerto Rico saw Gingrich getting an even weaker return, two percent.)

The former Confederate states provide the exception to the rule of Gingrich mired below 15 percent in the primaries or caucuses. The Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi contests were in the to 23.9 to 31.2 percent range. So, with Gingrich's 15.9 percent share of the vote in yesterday's Louisiana primary, this was a precipitous defeat.
Crushing defeat for Romney
Furthermore, the Louisiana results were terrific for Santorum and terrible for Romney. Santorum took the entire state, save for one county, Orleans County, the one with the state's largest city, New Orleans. With Santorum's win of 49.0 percent of the vote, the Louisiana win was his third greatest victory yet since the Missouri contests with 55.2 percent of the vote. and Kansas with 51.2 percent. Romney was over 20 percentage points behind Santorum in Louisiana with 27.0 percent.
References:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/
With either reference click on the state contests on the 2012 table for the links to the addresses for the 2012 primary returns.

THESE WILL BE SANTORUM'S NEXT VICTORIES & HOW WILL VOTERS REACT TO MITT'S FLIP-FLOPS?:
One cannot help but think that longtime Romney campaign advisor Eric Fehrnstrom's Wednesday March 21 gaffe that Romney will switch his positions in the general election campaign with President Obama like Etch-a--Sketch will play poorly with authentic conservative voters.
The quote:

“Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again.”

4/3, a Tuesday: Wisconsin primary
4/24, a Tuesday: Pennsylvania, aside from the northeastern (Delaware, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island) primaries losses to Romney
(And Romney's victories in New York, Connecticut and Delaware will not be that total. For upstate New York is much like the conservative regions of Pennsylvania and unlike any area in New England. See maps of these results from 2002 or 2004; and Connecticut is the state in which Republicans ion 2010 chose flaky World Wrestling Entertainment entrepreneur Linda McMahon for their Senatorial nominee, and Delaware is the state that gave us even flakier not ready for prime time Christine O'Donnell as its 2010 Senatorial nominee. So there will be big percentages for Santorum in those states. With the proportional distribution of delegates in these states the Romney victories will not mean a thorough sweep of the delegates, for Santorum will take his fair share with the proportionality rules.
This statement, combined with Romney's record of flip-flops in transitioning from Massachusetts to the national stage, will further caste doubt on his real plans for governing. See this set of videos of Romney's public statements on issues ranging from abortion to Contract for America, gay marriage and gun control. Youtube video of Romney speaking in support of Massachusetts' gun control laws. Youtube compilation of Romney flip-flops, "Look, I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush." "That's what we did in Massachusetts. That is, we put together an [health care insurance] exchange. The president's copying that idea. I'm glad to hear that." On global warming: "I believe that the world is getting warmer. I believe that humans are contribute to that.")
5/8, a Tuesday: Indiana, West Virginia primaries
5/15, a Tuesday: Nebraska primary

*Multiple choice exam on Mitt Romney positions on social and economic issues:
http://massresistance.org/romney/quiz/MittRomney20.pdf
5/22, a Tuesday: Arkansas, Kentucky primaries

Missouri Caucus Confusion, Arrests; Broader Implications

March 17, 2012 turned out to be a day of complexity for the Republican presidential contest in Missouri. 5:00 Eastern time and we do not have clear results.
However, we do have impressionistic reactions. Of course, the impression is that Rick Santorum did well. Interesting are the reports from the ABC-TV News blog that this was one of Ron Paul's best days. Also, news supports contentions that there is some level of coordination or at least strategic peace between the Mitt Romney and Ron Paul campaigns.
See ABC's "Missouri Caucus Anecdotes: Arguments, Arrests, and a Good Day for Ron Paul", March 17, 2012.

Actually, this story will not resolve this weekend, for the last results do not get released until March 24, 2012. Many locales, including St. Louis, will not hold their caucuses until the 24th.
From UPI:

So the winner of Missouri's 52 electoral votes for the GOP presidential nomination will not be known until a round of meetings in April, weeks after most of the county-level caucuses are conducted.

And reports on the political infighting and arrests: These are not a good development, for if these things were happening on the Democratic, or a third, progressive side, the Left would be crying, state control:
From Des Moines Register: Contention, confusion mar Missouri caucuses, http://www.desmoinesregister.com/usatoday/article/53587822?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Iowa%20Politics%20Insider|s
From STLive: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/gop-caucus-sites-drawing-big-crowds/article_a8eb35ec-7050-11e1-acac-0019bb30f31a.html

Super Tuesday Analysis: Santorum's Victory

Conservatives love to make hay of the liberal bent of MSNBC.
Romney's victories
NBC News is a different story: David Gregory of Meet the Press is in steady pro-Mitt Romney mode, speaking with a cheery tone about Romney's victories:
Massachusetts,
Vermont
and Virginia (which doesn't count as a competitive model, as only Romney and Paul appeared on the ballot).
(BREAKING: By 11:15 PM, television network news announced that the Ohio margin had reversed, from Santorum with a narrow lead, to Romney with a narrow lead. The margin remains less than 5,000 votes.)
The Wyoming caucus results are at first indications leaning towards Romney.
Santorum's greater number of victories: Super Tuesday true big story
Rick Santorum has won Oklahoma and Tennessee.
Since about 9:00 PM Eastern, all the returns have Santorum leading over Romney.
NBC just reported that the North Dakota caucus went to Santorum.
Ginrich's sole victory
New Gingrich has won his home state, Georgia, probably what will be his last victory of the campaign.
(The Idaho caucuses seem too early to call, but are strongly leading to Romney at 10:50 PM.)
Santorum in the coming contests
This Saturday, March 10, the Kansas caucuses will probably go to Santorum. All of Kansas' surrounding contests, to date have gone to Santorum: Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado and Iowa.
And the same holds for next Tuesday's main contests will go to Santorum: Alabama and Mississippi. (Hawaii will probably go to Romney.)

Little Romney pick-up soon
And it will be until March 20 and the Illinois primary that Romney will have a victory.
Another big night for Romney will probably be April 24, with friendly primary contests in Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island.

Social Roots of the Enduring Support Gingrich is Recieving --The Story the Media is Missing

The media have been abuzz with commentary about how former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner in the 2012 Republican presidential contest.
They have missed analyzing the county-level returns. In contest after contest, the social conservatives, first former Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania), then former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Georgia) have been cleaning up in the non-urban, cultural periphery parts of states and their primary or caucus contests.

First, in the Iowa caucuses, Santorum won the majority of the counties, and particularly, he won the rural counties. (See this county map of the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses.)

Next, in the South Carolina primary (January 21) Gingrich swept to victory in the parts of the state that were outside of the state capital, Columbia and the Atlantic Ocean coast with Charleston and Myrtle Beach. (See this county map of the 2012 South Carolina Republican primary.)

In Florida on January 31 Gingrich got all but three counties in the western part of the state, including counties north and west of the county containing Alachua, and west of the county containing Jacksonville. (See this county map of the 2012 Florida Republican primary.) Presaging the Super Tuesday contest at the beginning of March, Gingrich handily beat Romney in the Florida panhandle, adjacent to Georgia.

Even in yesterday's Nevada caucuses, Romney's support was not quite as strong in the western part of the state.
In Minnesota we can expect some drama as this was one of the better Huckabee states (he was the leading social conservative since the 2008 race), as he got 19.88 percent of the votes in the 2008 caucus.

One can also see a county level map of the whole U.S.A.of the winning pluralities in the 2008 race as part of this 2008 comparison process. Assuming that these depictions are useful future predictions, in the next coming contests, Romney will do quite well in Colorado (Feb. 7), Gingrich will have a level of a come-back in the Minnesota caucus (Feb. 7), Gingrich will have a level of a come-back in Missouri (it has a non-binding primary on February 7 but its binding caucus is on March 17), Romney will will do well in the Maine caucus (February 11) but will share the win with Paul in parts, and Gingrich will have a resurgence in Super Tuesday, particularly in the authentic South (e.g., Georgia as opposed to Florida).

Santorum is in trouble and you would think that he would consider dropping out, he has not exceeded 18 percent of the vote any contest since New Hampshire on January 10, his highest recent response being 17.0 percent in the South Carolina primary.

The winner-take-all ("WTA") dynamic has a way of encouraging candidates to leave the race. Notice the heavy load of delegates racked up for John McCain in the 2008 contest; yet, Romney won many contests as well. However, the WTA delegate stack meant that the delegate accumulation did not happen for Romney, only in significant numbers for McCain. Note these patterns in the 2008 race, in a chronological wikipedia table of vote and delegate distribution for each primary; wearying of the delegate accumulation for McCain, Romney dropped out fight after the February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday primaries.
This year, 2012, however, with more contests having proportional distribution of delegates and candidates insistent on staying in the race after front-runner momentum shows futility for the less successful candidates. (i.e., Think of Santorum in particular.)

* * *
ROMNEY FAILING TO IGNITE REPUBLICAN VOTERS' PASSIONS AND GET WINNING MAJORITIES
It is interesting that Newt Gingrich has not pointed this out more clearly:
Romney is the sole moderate remaining in the Republican presidential race now. Four years ago in 2008 he split the moderate vote with John McCain.
Now, with no McCain in the race, he has not once been able to lift voter enthusiasm beyond the 48 percent mark.
With McCain out of the way, he should be able to win with rates of 70 percent or more.
(Compare with the percentages that Romney and McCain got in the 2008 primary season.)
Yet, look at the states where Romney and his media boosters have trumpeted; Romney has not once broken through the 48 percent point:
New Hampshire, January 10, 39.3 percent
Florida, January 31, 46.4 percent
Nevada, February 4, 47.6 percent

BREAKING: Court: Only Romney & Paul Qualify for Va. Ballot - No Newt or Rick in Virginia

Just in:
A court ruling today (January 21, 2012) confirms that only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul qualified for the Virginia GOP primary ballot. Thus, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will not be on the ballot.
Virginia law requires 10,000 signatures to get a candidate onto the ballot.
Source: SportNews.com, from Christian Science Monitor (csmonitor.com)

The Missouri caucus (March 17) also does not have former House Speaker Gingrich. Yet, it has everyone else on the ballot, even orthodox libertarian Gary Johnson. (The state has a non-binding primary on February 7.)
Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MO-R

And:
LOYALTY OATH IMPOSED ON VIRGINIA PRIMARY VOTERS?
Ah, the chickens come home: Remember how much Republicans wanted loyalty oaths from Americans from the 1940s to the 1960s (and in some places until the 1980s)?
Well, now that courts are keeping the super Tuesday (March 6) primary a two-man race Virginia politicians are embarrassed by the oaths they wanted to impose on voters, binding them to support the Republican nominee for president.

A divisive “loyalty oath” requiring voters in Virginia’s March Republican presidential primary to support the eventual GOP nominee is being removed from the ballot in an expedited, last-minute request from the state Republican Party.

Scrambling to meet a Friday deadline for finalizing primary ballots, Virginia Republican chairman Pat Mullins and the party’s executive director, Dave Rexrode, polled the state party’s governing central committee by phone and e-mail.
The committee voted overwhelmingly to reverse its December decision to place the pledge on the GOP ballots, and the Virginia Republican executive committee made the decision official.

The central committee had planned to vote at a special meeting on Saturday, said Lee E. Goodman, an attorney and longtime adviser to the party, “but that would have been too late. The ballots are sent out on Friday.”

Rexrode rushed the executive committee’s authorization to Donald Palmer, executive secretary of the State Board of Elections, who said the proviso was being struck from the ballot.

Republicans, long suspicious that independents and Democrats were meddling with their nominating process in primaries, saw the pledge as a way to address the concern in a state where voters do not register by party affiliation. Virginia Republicans sometimes hold statewide conventions to ensure that only credentialed Republicans select their nominees.

Mullins began working to reverse the decision when it drew condemnation from across the political spectrum.

The American Civil Liberties Union threatened to sue the GOP unless it was rescinded. Democrats ridiculed it, saying it defines the GOP as an exclusionary party.

Read the full link below for end of the AP story.
From the Washington Post, from the AP, January 17, 2012: "Va. Republicans ask state elections board to delete loyalty oath from March primary ballot".

South Carolina's Winner-Take-All Nail-BIter

The January 21 South Carolina Republican primary will be a nail biter.

The state's 25 delegates will ALL go to the highest winner. (Its delegate count got chopped in half from 50 because S.C. GOP moved its date early, to preserve its first in the South status.)
It's an open primary, which brings in Independents and Democrats in a no Democratic contest year. This is the only plus factor for Mitt Romney, and maybe for Ron Paul. But this is the evangelical Protestant Christian South, so look more to the avowedly social conservatives.
It's set for a Saturday, which should bring in more blue collar voters. A plus again for the social conservatives.

Hard to say who will win the state.

Easier to address who will have trouble:
RON PAUL: the libertarian won't win because of --as the New York Times pointed out on January 4, the day after the Iowa caucuses-- the high military enrollments and the military base(s) in the state. He hasn't had any peaking period. His controversial newsletters and emails shouldn't be a problem in this very conservative state. He only peaked at 12 percent in December.
RICK PERRY: will be seen as a goof because of his debate and memory goofs/flubs (which caused him to sink from his S.C. polled high of 50 percent at the end of August --and this was in a selection of a field narrowed to Perry, Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann, so a poll excluding Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich). The last time he polled 10 percent or more was in October.

The contest is between MITT ROMNEY, NEWT GINGRICH AND RICK SANTORUM.
ROMNEY: He peaked in the polls at 27 percent on September 20. Plenty of flip-flops, expect an onslaught of Gingrich TV ads bringing up Romney's liberal or moderate positions on guns, abortions, and maybe gay and lesbian civil unions.

So the race is really between Gingrich and Santorum. The question is whether the former House Speaker's bitter, vengeful vendetta tone against Romney will backfire. Look also to who polls third (Gingrich or Santorum) in New Hampshire.
In SC expect Gingrich and Santorum to have 55 percent easily to split between the two of them.
(How long will the new charges against Santorum as a tax and spend beltway insider stick? They're dubious criticisms when you consider the interest group ratings of him and Newt. google: the no-partisan Project Vote Smart. The two Washington veterans have VERY similar records. But Gingrich has more heterodox positions that might hurt him, such as his perceived leniency on illegal immigrant families and his positive comments about Massachusetts' "RomneyCare" health program.)

Poll sources: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/presidential-polls/south-carolina/south-carolina-gop-primary/ (drawing from different polls, albeit latest poll was December 20, 2011 amidst the Newt Gingrich surge (and before the Romney machine ad money barrage vs. Gingrich))