Thursday, January 12, 2012

Romney and demographics in NH primary vote; demogs & past votes for anticipating 1/21 SC and 1/31 FL votes

What exit polls tell us on which candidate did well with which voters:
In the 2012 NH primary Romney went very well with Catholic voters; this should portend well for him in central and southern Florida.

Looking at voting patterns: Romney did well in college educated towns; these predominate throughout central and southern NH (see map in census page). (scroll down on this page for the key quote:

South Carolina does not look like that: these are only in Columbia and the Atlantic coast.
In the January 19, 2008 primary Romney placed fourth there with 15.3 percent (on other hand his mirror, McCain led the field there -3 points ahead of Huckabee).
Gingrich will probably pull ahead of Santorum: he's from next door; Santorum is from Penn, and has an Italian name. Giuliani, a media darling in '08 placed sixth behind Ron Paul.
In South Carolina, expect a Gingrich-Romney battle for first, followed by Santorum, Paul, Huntsman.
In Florida, however, in 2008 Giuliani placed third. Expect Romney to win in Florida. Huntsman should show his best showing since NH in Florida.

Expect Ron Paul to slow down in the south: he place 7.8 in NH in '08; and half that in SC and FL. Anyway, word is that Paul is slowing down his race, shifting emphasis to the caucus states, which return on the 2012 scene next month in Nevada and Maine. Speaking of Nevada, expect Romney to pull ahead there, as he took the state in '08. Paul got his highest percentage of votes up to that point, 13.73 percent.

Border paranoia really doesn't play first place. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, 2008 specialists in the immigrants and border card, got miniscule percentages in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. Hunter dropped out of race after SC.

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