Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Don't Write Off Gingrich, Santorum Delegate Effect After April 10

Yes, Rick Santorum has given up his 2012 presidential nomination bid.

But do you really think that his delegates are going to shift entirely over to Mitt Romney's camp?
At this point most of the Santorum delegates are going to go to Newt Gingrich.

With all the mainstream media pronouncing clear sailing for Romney, with the suspension of the Santorum campaign, you would wonder, have they looked at the primary and convention schedule for the next few weeks?

HOW THE HEADLINES WILL LOOK, APPROACHING APRIL 24, NEXT BIG PRIMARY DAY
The headlines over the next few weeks are going to most likely tell the story of Santorum delegates staying in the anti-Romney camp. The anti-Romney voters probably have not forgotten Romney's aide Eric Fehrnstrom's March 21 comment about Etch-a-Sketch of Romney's positions in September and October.
In the next few weeks we have various district, county and state level conventions. These are important meetings. As GreenPapers, one of the better sites on the primary elections tell us, these are dates at which convention attendees will vote on whom delegates will be, heading toward the August 27 Tampa convention.
So, on these dates, anticipate the affirmation of the anti-Romney position, and a shift of support, and endorsement of sorts, from Santorum to Gingrich:
April 13, Colorado district conventions, April 14, Colorado state convention and April 21, Minnesota's district convention.
Wyoming's convention, April 14, could go a number of ways. Out of the March 10 county delegate selection announcement, Romney won 10 delegates, Santorum 8, Ron Paul 6 and Newt Gingrich 2. If the Santorum delegates all go to Gingrich, then Gingrich would be tied with Romney.

Friendly primaries and delegate assignment meetings in the next few weeks also would more likely go Gingrich's way than Romney's:
Kansas (4/24), Louisiana (4/28), Minnesota (5/5), Indiana (5/8), West Virginia (5/8), Nebraska (5/15), Arkansas (5/22), Kentucky (5/22), Texas (5/29). And much of New York and Pennsylvania consists of red counties, so watch for Gingrich to pick up many delegates in those states on April 22.

So, the Newt Gingrich juggernaut will certainly not die out during April or May.

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