Key Ohio GOPer Switches from Romney to Santorum; CPAC and Religious Endorsements

KEY OHIO ENDORSEMENT:
Yesterday (February 17, 2012) in a major coup for the Rick Santorum presidential campaign, Attorney General Mike DeWine speaking publicly in Columbus, Ohio, switched his support from Mitt Romney to Rick Santorum. This could have a detrimental effect on the state next door, Michigan, on February 28 when Romney's birth state holds its presidential primary, 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM, Central Time. 30 proportionally distributed convention delegates are at stake in the Michigan primary.

RIGHT WING GROUPS' ENDORSEMENTS:
Take a look at the meeting program of the crazy, far right Conservative Political Union's Conservative Political Action Committee "CPAC": February 9 to 11, 2012 at the Ballroom of the Marriott Park Wardman Hotel in Washington, DC:
http://cpac2012.conservative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Schedule-Of-Events_Latest.pdf

The CPAC endorsed Mitt Romney for the 2012 presidential nomination, but well short of a majority, 38 percent supporting Romney; Rick Santorum won 31 percent, Newt Gingrich, 15 percent, Ron Paul, 12 percent.

RIGGED CPAC ELECTION?
Rick Santorum charged that the process was manipulated:

“Well, you know, those straw polls at CPAC — as you know for years Ron Paul has won those because he just trucks in a lot of people, pays for their ticket, they come in a vote, and then they leave,” “We didn’t do that. We don’t do that. I don’t try to rig straw polls.”

--As reported by The Raw Story blog.

Earlier post:
The CPAC is due to make an endorsement. In the past they have endorsed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Political_Action_Conference
Which of the remaining Republican candidates for president in 2012 will they endorse?: Romney? Gingrich? Paul? Santorum?
DO these groups' endorsements have an effect?
Did the religious conservatives' January 14, 2012 endorsement of Rick Santorum at their Texas meeting play a role in his recent primary and caucuses wins (Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri)? (More than 150 religious conservatives such as Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference president Rev. Samuel Rodriguez and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer met at the Benham, Texas ranch of retired judge Paul Pressler.)

Social Roots of the Enduring Support Gingrich is Recieving --The Story the Media is Missing

The media have been abuzz with commentary about how former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner in the 2012 Republican presidential contest.
They have missed analyzing the county-level returns. In contest after contest, the social conservatives, first former Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania), then former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Georgia) have been cleaning up in the non-urban, cultural periphery parts of states and their primary or caucus contests.

First, in the Iowa caucuses, Santorum won the majority of the counties, and particularly, he won the rural counties. (See this county map of the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses.)

Next, in the South Carolina primary (January 21) Gingrich swept to victory in the parts of the state that were outside of the state capital, Columbia and the Atlantic Ocean coast with Charleston and Myrtle Beach. (See this county map of the 2012 South Carolina Republican primary.)

In Florida on January 31 Gingrich got all but three counties in the western part of the state, including counties north and west of the county containing Alachua, and west of the county containing Jacksonville. (See this county map of the 2012 Florida Republican primary.) Presaging the Super Tuesday contest at the beginning of March, Gingrich handily beat Romney in the Florida panhandle, adjacent to Georgia.

Even in yesterday's Nevada caucuses, Romney's support was not quite as strong in the western part of the state.
In Minnesota we can expect some drama as this was one of the better Huckabee states (he was the leading social conservative since the 2008 race), as he got 19.88 percent of the votes in the 2008 caucus.

One can also see a county level map of the whole U.S.A.of the winning pluralities in the 2008 race as part of this 2008 comparison process. Assuming that these depictions are useful future predictions, in the next coming contests, Romney will do quite well in Colorado (Feb. 7), Gingrich will have a level of a come-back in the Minnesota caucus (Feb. 7), Gingrich will have a level of a come-back in Missouri (it has a non-binding primary on February 7 but its binding caucus is on March 17), Romney will will do well in the Maine caucus (February 11) but will share the win with Paul in parts, and Gingrich will have a resurgence in Super Tuesday, particularly in the authentic South (e.g., Georgia as opposed to Florida).

Santorum is in trouble and you would think that he would consider dropping out, he has not exceeded 18 percent of the vote any contest since New Hampshire on January 10, his highest recent response being 17.0 percent in the South Carolina primary.

The winner-take-all ("WTA") dynamic has a way of encouraging candidates to leave the race. Notice the heavy load of delegates racked up for John McCain in the 2008 contest; yet, Romney won many contests as well. However, the WTA delegate stack meant that the delegate accumulation did not happen for Romney, only in significant numbers for McCain. Note these patterns in the 2008 race, in a chronological wikipedia table of vote and delegate distribution for each primary; wearying of the delegate accumulation for McCain, Romney dropped out fight after the February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday primaries.
This year, 2012, however, with more contests having proportional distribution of delegates and candidates insistent on staying in the race after front-runner momentum shows futility for the less successful candidates. (i.e., Think of Santorum in particular.)

* * *
ROMNEY FAILING TO IGNITE REPUBLICAN VOTERS' PASSIONS AND GET WINNING MAJORITIES
It is interesting that Newt Gingrich has not pointed this out more clearly:
Romney is the sole moderate remaining in the Republican presidential race now. Four years ago in 2008 he split the moderate vote with John McCain.
Now, with no McCain in the race, he has not once been able to lift voter enthusiasm beyond the 48 percent mark.
With McCain out of the way, he should be able to win with rates of 70 percent or more.
(Compare with the percentages that Romney and McCain got in the 2008 primary season.)
Yet, look at the states where Romney and his media boosters have trumpeted; Romney has not once broken through the 48 percent point:
New Hampshire, January 10, 39.3 percent
Florida, January 31, 46.4 percent
Nevada, February 4, 47.6 percent

The 2012 Republican primary debate schedule

The last one, Jan. 22, Jacksonville, FL:
8 PM ET on CNN
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012/01/video-watch-the-full-cnn-florida-republican-debate/

THE FULL LIST OF NEXT UPCOMING DEBATES:
Feb. 22 at the Mesa Arts Center, Mesa, Arizona [before the Arizona and Michigan primaries]
8 PM ET on CNN. Sponsored by CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona.

Cancelled: March 1, at a Georgia location [before March 6, Super-Tuesday]
8 PM ET on CNN All but Gingrich pulled out of the debate; see this National Journal report.

Cancelled: March 5, at Reagan Library, Simi, California [also preceding Super Tuesday]
TBD on NBC

March 19, at Portland, Oregon
9 PM ET on PBS. Sponsored by: Oregon Public Broadcasting, NPR, PBS, The Washington Times and the Oregon Republican Party.

Source:
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/

* * *
Righty groups endorsements for 2012 Republican presidential nominee:
CPU's CPAC February 9 to 11 in the Marriott in Washington DC: they chose Mitt Romney over Rick Santorum, 38 percent over 31 percent.
Here's their meeting's program:
http://cpac2012.conservative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Schedule-Of-Events_Latest.pdf

Earlier post:
Reportage on them; they are getting nervous about the nomination and President Obama. They might surprise us and endorse Romney; they've endorsed him in the past.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120205/NEWS09/302050037/Conservative-forum-carries-undercurrent-of-tension-about-options
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120205/NEWS09/120205002/-1/JUICE07/A-tough-crowd-Mitt-Romney-will-others-step-up-

But then, see how the evangelicals' endorsement of Rick Santorum was ineffectual. They endorsed, and Gingrich swept the next primary, South Carolina.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/25/1058345/-Rick-Santorum-and-the-Religious-Rights-Ineffectual-Endorsement

BREAKING: Court: Only Romney & Paul Qualify for Va. Ballot - No Newt or Rick in Virginia

Just in:
A court ruling today (January 21, 2012) confirms that only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul qualified for the Virginia GOP primary ballot. Thus, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will not be on the ballot.
Virginia law requires 10,000 signatures to get a candidate onto the ballot.
Source: SportNews.com, from Christian Science Monitor (csmonitor.com)

The Missouri caucus (March 17) also does not have former House Speaker Gingrich. Yet, it has everyone else on the ballot, even orthodox libertarian Gary Johnson. (The state has a non-binding primary on February 7.)
Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MO-R

And:
LOYALTY OATH IMPOSED ON VIRGINIA PRIMARY VOTERS?
Ah, the chickens come home: Remember how much Republicans wanted loyalty oaths from Americans from the 1940s to the 1960s (and in some places until the 1980s)?
Well, now that courts are keeping the super Tuesday (March 6) primary a two-man race Virginia politicians are embarrassed by the oaths they wanted to impose on voters, binding them to support the Republican nominee for president.

A divisive “loyalty oath” requiring voters in Virginia’s March Republican presidential primary to support the eventual GOP nominee is being removed from the ballot in an expedited, last-minute request from the state Republican Party.

Scrambling to meet a Friday deadline for finalizing primary ballots, Virginia Republican chairman Pat Mullins and the party’s executive director, Dave Rexrode, polled the state party’s governing central committee by phone and e-mail.
The committee voted overwhelmingly to reverse its December decision to place the pledge on the GOP ballots, and the Virginia Republican executive committee made the decision official.

The central committee had planned to vote at a special meeting on Saturday, said Lee E. Goodman, an attorney and longtime adviser to the party, “but that would have been too late. The ballots are sent out on Friday.”

Rexrode rushed the executive committee’s authorization to Donald Palmer, executive secretary of the State Board of Elections, who said the proviso was being struck from the ballot.

Republicans, long suspicious that independents and Democrats were meddling with their nominating process in primaries, saw the pledge as a way to address the concern in a state where voters do not register by party affiliation. Virginia Republicans sometimes hold statewide conventions to ensure that only credentialed Republicans select their nominees.

Mullins began working to reverse the decision when it drew condemnation from across the political spectrum.

The American Civil Liberties Union threatened to sue the GOP unless it was rescinded. Democrats ridiculed it, saying it defines the GOP as an exclusionary party.

Read the full link below for end of the AP story.
From the Washington Post, from the AP, January 17, 2012: "Va. Republicans ask state elections board to delete loyalty oath from March primary ballot".

Romney and demographics in NH primary vote; demogs & past votes for anticipating 1/21 SC and 1/31 FL votes

What exit polls tell us on which candidate did well with which voters:
In the 2012 NH primary Romney went very well with Catholic voters; this should portend well for him in central and southern Florida.
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/10/10102559-possible-implications-for-november-in-exit-poll-data

Looking at voting patterns: Romney did well in college educated towns; these predominate throughout central and southern NH (see map in census page). (scroll down on this page for the key quote: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns/early-exit-poll-results-show-economy-is-easily-the-top-concern-among-voters-in-nh-gop-primary/2012/01/10/gIQApi50oP_story.html)

South Carolina does not look like that: these are only in Columbia and the Atlantic coast.
In the January 19, 2008 primary Romney placed fourth there with 15.3 percent (on other hand his mirror, McCain led the field there -3 points ahead of Huckabee).
Gingrich will probably pull ahead of Santorum: he's from next door; Santorum is from Penn, and has an Italian name. Giuliani, a media darling in '08 placed sixth behind Ron Paul.
In South Carolina, expect a Gingrich-Romney battle for first, followed by Santorum, Paul, Huntsman.
In Florida, however, in 2008 Giuliani placed third. Expect Romney to win in Florida. Huntsman should show his best showing since NH in Florida.

Expect Ron Paul to slow down in the south: he place 7.8 in NH in '08; and half that in SC and FL. Anyway, word is that Paul is slowing down his race, shifting emphasis to the caucus states, which return on the 2012 scene next month in Nevada and Maine. Speaking of Nevada, expect Romney to pull ahead there, as he took the state in '08. Paul got his highest percentage of votes up to that point, 13.73 percent.

Border paranoia really doesn't play first place. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, 2008 specialists in the immigrants and border card, got miniscule percentages in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. Hunter dropped out of race after SC.

South Carolina's Winner-Take-All Nail-BIter

The January 21 South Carolina Republican primary will be a nail biter.

The state's 25 delegates will ALL go to the highest winner. (Its delegate count got chopped in half from 50 because S.C. GOP moved its date early, to preserve its first in the South status.)
It's an open primary, which brings in Independents and Democrats in a no Democratic contest year. This is the only plus factor for Mitt Romney, and maybe for Ron Paul. But this is the evangelical Protestant Christian South, so look more to the avowedly social conservatives.
It's set for a Saturday, which should bring in more blue collar voters. A plus again for the social conservatives.

Hard to say who will win the state.

Easier to address who will have trouble:
RON PAUL: the libertarian won't win because of --as the New York Times pointed out on January 4, the day after the Iowa caucuses-- the high military enrollments and the military base(s) in the state. He hasn't had any peaking period. His controversial newsletters and emails shouldn't be a problem in this very conservative state. He only peaked at 12 percent in December.
RICK PERRY: will be seen as a goof because of his debate and memory goofs/flubs (which caused him to sink from his S.C. polled high of 50 percent at the end of August --and this was in a selection of a field narrowed to Perry, Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann, so a poll excluding Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich). The last time he polled 10 percent or more was in October.

The contest is between MITT ROMNEY, NEWT GINGRICH AND RICK SANTORUM.
ROMNEY: He peaked in the polls at 27 percent on September 20. Plenty of flip-flops, expect an onslaught of Gingrich TV ads bringing up Romney's liberal or moderate positions on guns, abortions, and maybe gay and lesbian civil unions.

So the race is really between Gingrich and Santorum. The question is whether the former House Speaker's bitter, vengeful vendetta tone against Romney will backfire. Look also to who polls third (Gingrich or Santorum) in New Hampshire.
In SC expect Gingrich and Santorum to have 55 percent easily to split between the two of them.
(How long will the new charges against Santorum as a tax and spend beltway insider stick? They're dubious criticisms when you consider the interest group ratings of him and Newt. google: the no-partisan Project Vote Smart. The two Washington veterans have VERY similar records. But Gingrich has more heterodox positions that might hurt him, such as his perceived leniency on illegal immigrant families and his positive comments about Massachusetts' "RomneyCare" health program.)

Poll sources: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/presidential-polls/south-carolina/south-carolina-gop-primary/ (drawing from different polls, albeit latest poll was December 20, 2011 amidst the Newt Gingrich surge (and before the Romney machine ad money barrage vs. Gingrich))

Challenging Conventional (Traditional) Wisdom on NH & Primaries

Time was professors and pundits intoned that the New Hampshire primary (January 10 in 2012) mattered do deeply because the victors turned out to be the major political parties' presidential nominees.

However, in recent years, that axiom is showing not to true. South Carolina (held on January 21 in 2012) is the better bellwether state.

In 1996, conservative political commentator Patrick ("Pat") Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary. In 2000 Arizona Senator John McCain won that primary.
The Democratic primary victors have differed from the eventual nominee in more contests: in 1984, Sen. Gary Hart won; in 1994 Sen. Paul Tsongas won; in 2008 Sen. Hilary Clinton won.

SOUTH CAROLINA THE BETTER BELLWETHER (FOR REPUBLICANS)
By contrast, in South Carolina the Republican primary race winners at least since 1980 have all eventually become the nominees.
For Democrats, however, South Carolina primary or caucus results have not matched the eventual nominess: in 1988 the South Carolina Democrats held a caucus and chose Rev. Jesse Jackson. In 2004 the primary winner was Sen. John Edwards.

(One practical resource: http://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/1976_Primaries)