Showing posts with label economic recovery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic recovery. Show all posts

Monday, July 22, 2013

Alliance for American Manufacturing's Paul: No More Detroits

Scott Paul has written an important essay arguing that America part from its no help to the industrial sector ideological-economic orthodoxy. Correctly, he draws the parallels to European and East Asian countries that are thriving because they have industrial policies that help their domestic industries. If America can violate free market orthodoxy to help the farming sector then it can certainly do the same to help the manufacturing sector. In writing "No More Detroits" he was responding to the Detroit's declaring bankruptcy, this past Friday, July 19, 2013. He appeared today on Ed Schultz's radio show.

As The American Prospect argued in December, 2009, big business and Washington had the chance to do the right thing in the 1970s with manufacturing and industrial policy, but it failed to. See Jeff Faux, Industrial Policy: The Road Not Taken.

No More Detroits

The city of Detroit's bankruptcy is an American tragedy and an entirely preventable one. The downward spiral began decades ago when deindustrialization led to depopulation, crime and declining public revenues. Corruption and mismanagement may have exacerbated the problem, but they weren't the root cause. The gravest mistake we can make today is to believe that Detroit is an anomaly. It isn't. The economic threats that brought down Detroit are present in other great American cities. The question is: Will we learn our lesson and prevent future harm elsewhere?
Deindustrialization -- in Detroit or elsewhere -- is neither desirable nor inevitable. But as any physician will tell you, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
I believe that same maxim applies to economies. With smart public policies, cities, states, and nations can maintain diverse, sustainable economies that may bend with the business cycle but will never break.
Nations with a manufacturing strategy ("State of the Union A Comprehensive National Manufacturing Strategy") have a greater percentage of their economy and employment in industry than we do in America today.

. . . What do they know that we don't? Manufacturing matters.
As I point out in our new book, ReMaking America, the idea that deindustrialization in America is nothing to worry about has been conventional wisdom for several decades. Thought leaders often tell us why we should be so lucky that America can just design while leaving it to the developing world to produce.
But they ignore vital examples like the high-wage German economy with its sizable manufacturing sector. They say cheap imports are great for our economy, a slogan that ignores the fact that one's buying power is limited, even at Wal-Mart, when they can't find a job. We hear that outsourcing is a good thing, which fails to take into account that a day may come when America can't supply its own troops. And we're told that trade deficits don't matter, except that they, too, have to be financed somehow and that this obligation has cost the middle class its jobs and wealth.
. . .
Paul makes some policy recommendations to restore American jobs, American wealth:
1. Cut the trade deficit in goods in half over the next three years. This means more exports, and fewer subsidized imports from China and Japan that dislocate workers in cities like Detroit. It does us little good to double exports, as President Obama stumped for during his re-election campaign, if imports are rising at an even greater rate.
2. Restore the balance of power between the industrial park and Wall Street. Financial deregulation in the late 1990s made the financial sector the master of manufacturing. That, along with the creation of CDOs and other get-rich-quick "innovations," was a huge mistake. Ensure that our small- and mid-sized manufacturers have access to affordable, patient capital.
3. Rebuild the connection between innovation and production. Our tax dollars fund research that helps create amazing products -- that are made overseas and sold back to us. We should insist that federally supported R&D is channeled into the design, engineering, and productions of goods in America. Congress should fund the $1 billion proposed by the Obama Administration to create a network of national innovation institutes.
4. Adopt policies to boost demand. That means infrastructure investment and tax policies geared towards higher levels of production and consumption of domestic goods. Even with automation and productivity, higher demand means we'll be supporting more manufacturing jobs. Don't allow Wall Street and retailers to hijack corporate tax reform when only manufacturers face real global competition.
5. Scrap the "strong dollar" policy that helps U.S. businessmen find cheaper hotel rooms overseas in favor of a competitively valued dollar that will boost our exports. The Institute for International Economics estimates that the dollar is overvalued, while China's and Japan's currencies are undervalued. We should insist those governments end policies that deliberately lower the value of their currencies.
6. Adopt smart energy policies that will position the United States as the global leader in renewable energy equipment manufacturing and boost our emerging energy cost advantage. Exporting loads of domestic natural gas to countries that subsidize their own industries makes little sense.
7. Encourage small-scale manufacturers to embrace "urban manufacturing," the "cloud," and additive manufacturing. This will localize manufacturing, reduce imports, and establish a new generation of makers.
8. Rebuild our system of vocational education. Creating a seamless system of training from high school, to community college, and on to the factory floor for a new generation of manufacturing workers will boost American manufacturing's competitiveness and provide a viable career path for millions of Americans.

Make no mistake: This isn't about rebuilding manufacturing the way it was in America, but rather about how we can restore American manufacturing leadership in this century. We need to get smart. With the right policies -- including those above, which are outlined in great detail in ReMaking America -- manufacturing can see a new dawn in Detroit and all across America. We can see renewed wealth and growth opportunities necessary to keep the American dream alive. And we'll certainly see fewer headlines like we had on Friday.
ReMaking America authors: Richard McCormack, Eric Garfinkel, Leo Hindery, Sridhar Kota, Harold Meyerson, Harry Moser, Scott Paul, Irene Petrick, Carl Pope, Stacey Jarrett Wagner.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Economic indicators suggest an Obama recovery; yet GOP & FOX-type media give no credit

By the latest economic indicators, the economy is moving in the direction of recovery.

ABC News reported today that several indicators are pointing to an economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to surpass 9,000 last week (to 9,069.29). This was the first time that it exceeded that level. And all the large stock indexes rose by more than two percent, TIm Paradis and Sara Lepro in "The Minneapolis Star-Tribune" reported Thursday. The NASDAQ had its most impressive rally since 1992: a 12th straight advance, i.e., the composite index rising by 47.22, or 2.5 percent.

Home sales (of previously lived-in homes) were at 4.89 milion in June, compared with the anticipated 4.84 milion.

INVESTMENT MANAGER BILL MILLER BULLISH
Legg Mason trust fund manager Bill Miller, who is renowned for "beating the S&P 500" says that the worst is over.
Jeff Kearns and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam report in "The Washington Post" this weekend that Miller said of the stock market that "the worst has passed."
"Bull markets typically begin when the following four conditions are present: the economy is bottoming, profits are bottoming, the Fed is stimulating and valuations are low. That's where we are now."

Miller, famed for beating the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index for a record 15 years through 2005, trailed the U.S. benchmark for the past three, partly because of investments in home builders, banks and mortgage companies. Those bets caused a record 55 percent loss in 2008. Legg Mason Value Trust has returned 19.8 percent this year, ahead of the index by 12.6 percentage points when dividends are included.

Banks and other financial institutions have rallied the most among 10 industries since the S&P 500 tumbled to a 12-year low March 9, surging 96 percent. Technology shares had the second-best gain, climbing 55 percent.

SEVERAL PROBLEMS REMAIN
There are several problems, enduring, however. Consumer confidence remains low.

Well, no wonder. Psychology is at play for lots of this. Consumers don't want to spend if they have reason to fear that their jobs are not secure.

Credit cards as a boon to economic vitality
Let's face it: credit cards are the crack of consumer spending. They provide(d) an illusory high of easy, immediate satisfying of buying impulses. And more seriously, they provided an important trigger that stimulated spending. It is no wonder that with the two factors of tighter credit and fears of job stability or security there is a decrease in consumer confidence. This made it particularly easy to splurge frequently or on big ticket items like plasma televisions.

Unemployment still troubling
Unemployment presently stands at 9.5 percent, the highest level since the first administration of President Ronald Reagan in the early 1980s.

RIGHT-WING, GOP, OTHER MEDIA --ESPECIALLY FOX-- NOT GIVING CREDIT WHERE DUE
This recovery, or at least positive turn-around on a number of fronts, is here after six months of the Barack Obama administration. The Republicans, the right in general, and the media need to be honest and give the administration credit where it is due.

These delusional pontificators were booming about how Obama was a socialist, a Marxist, a Stalinist. Just listen to Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh or Monica Crowley. Yet, where are they now, with the multiple positive signs suggesting a turn towards a recovery. They have now shifted their demagogic rhetorical flourish to Obama on health care policy, bandying about these -ism labels on Obama's public option.
Is it any wonder that one of the latest "Washington Post" polls has the public trusting President Obama over the Republicans on health care by a 54 to 34 margin.

Look in the news search engines and listen to the Republicans on the Sunday morning talk shows you cannot find Republicans acknowledging the loud hints of a recovery, let alone credit Obama with the recovery.

Just two weeks ago Obama was asking for more time for the stimulus to kick in. It seems as though this is happening.

**
As to whether this is a jobless recovery, that remains an open question. I believe that much of this question lies in the de-industrializing spiral that economic policy-makers have placed us in.